Compared to the crisis the industry is facing now, more routine challenges such as labor, rent and traffic probably seem like pieces of cake. Nonetheless, the Top 500 highest-grossing restaurant chains put up a fight against those obstacles in 2019, too, notching their best overall sales growth in five years. Here are some of the factors contributing to that growth as well as hindering it. Scroll down to see which chains saw the largest sales increases and largest declines.
The big chains—for better and worse
Overall Top 500 sales grew by 4.2% in 2019, the largest increase since 2015. That success is largely a result of the stability of the very biggest chains: McDonald’s, Starbucks and Chick-fil-A all saw sales increase, said Kevin Schimpf of Technomic. That pattern holds for individual dining segments, too. Good years from Chipotle and Panera drove fast-casual sales to 7.4% growth. And poor performances by casual-dining stalwarts Applebee’s and TGI Fridays contributed to the continual slowdown in that segment, which grew sales just 1.4%
One-time pops
Singular events such as Popeyes’ chicken sandwich and the boom in third-party delivery helped lift overall Top 500 sales. “You’re probably not gonna see those kinds of wins again in 2020,” said Schimpf.
Digital advances
Chains that added mobile ordering, third-party delivery and other digital advancements saw an impact on their bottom lines. McDonald’s, which has spent billions to upgrade its technology with developments such as drive-thru boards that can suggest items, recorded its best sales growth since 2011. Chipotle doubled down on digital ordering and also saw sales soar in 2019.
Plant-based proteins
Faux meat was the year’s biggest menu trend, with chains of all sizes adding plant-based analogues of burgers, breakfast sandwiches, chicken and more. In fact, so many chains ended up on the bandwagon that only early adopters likely saw a benefit, said Schimpf. “As soon as everyone got it on their menu, the impact gets diluted and you just lose that bounce pretty quickly,” he said.
Top 10 sales increases / Top 250 chains
| Chain name | YOY sales change % | 2019 U.S. sales ($000,000) | 2019 AUV ($000) | Top 500 rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicken Salad Chick | 39.5% | $153 | $1,251 | 215 |
| 2 | Metro Diner | 36.3% | $171* | $2,515* | 201 |
| 3 | First Watch | 35.1% | $558 | $1,685 | 82 |
| 4 | Shake Shack | 31.8% | $623 | $4,090 | 71 |
| 5 | Walk-On's Sports Bistreaux | 27.8% | $134 | $4,790 | 236 |
| 6 | Mission BBQ | 25% | $136* | $1,660* | 235 |
| 7 | Raising Cane's Chicken Fingers | 23.8% | $1,466 | $3,525 | 42 |
| 8 | MOD Pizza | 23.8% | $484 | $1,180 | 93 |
| 9 | Tropical Smoothie Cafe | 21.8% | $577 | $740 | 77 |
| 10 | Lazy Dog Restaurant & Bar | 21.3% | $213 | $6,800 | 166 |
Top 10 sales increases / Next 250 chains
| Chainn name | YOY sales change % | 2019 U.S. sales ($000,000) | 2019 AUV ($000) | Top 500 rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 110 Grill | 58.8% | $77 | $3,270 | 369 |
| 2 | Flower Child | 54.6% | $51* | $2,475* | 498 |
| 3 | CoreLife Eatery | 49% | $78* | $1,480* | 365 |
| 4 | Mendocino Farms | 40.6% | $54* | $1,930* | 482 |
| 5 | Cava | 40.6% | $120* | $1,480* | 256 |
| 6 | North Italia | 40.2% | $92* | $4,830* | 326 |
| 7 | Dig | 38.1% | $52* | $1,770* | 493 |
| 8 | Poke Bar | 35.8% | $71* | $855* | 395 |
| 9 | Panini Kabob Grill | 34.5% | $73 | $4,295 | 382 |
| 10 | Blue Bottle Coffee | 34.4% | $55* | $855* | 473 |
Largest sales declines / Top 250 chains
| Chain name | YOY sales change % | 2019 U.S. sales ($000,000) | 2019 AUV ($000) | Top 500 rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houlihan's | -21.2 | $143* | $2,625* | 230 |
| 2 | Old Country Buffet/HomeTown Buffet | -18.8 | $143* | $2,500* | 231 |
| 3 | Fuddruckers | -15.8 | $185* | $1,260* | 183 |
| 4 | McCormick & Schmick's | -15.6 | $158* | $4,150* | 212 |
| 5 | Friendly's | -15.3 | $210* | $1,175* | 168 |
Largest sales declines / Next 250 chains
| Chain Name | YOY sales change % | 2019 U.S. Sales ($000,000) | 2019 AUV ($000) | Top 500 rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tilted Kilt Pub & Eatery | -31.3 | $62* | $2,250* | 429 |
| 2 | Kona Grill | -30.5 | $113* | $3,525* | 269 |
| 3 | Papa Gino's Pizzeria | -26.8 | $72* | $770* | 390 |
| 4 | Marie Callender's Restaurant & Bakery | -25.2 | $90* | $2,275* | 336 |
| 5 | Chevys Fresh Mex | -21.3 | $60* | $2,500* | 440 |
Source: Technomic Top 500 Chain Restaurant Report; *Technomic estimate
Learn more about Technomic’s Top 500.
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